Blue Jays vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Toronto bounces back after ugly week in Bronx

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MLB odds, picks and predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees on May 10. Free MLB betting picks for Moneyline and Over/Under.

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After not losing a series in April, the Toronto Blue Jays got off to a humble start to May losing straight sets to the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians.

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Luckily for the Jays, they’re healthy and will get a chance to put that behind them quickly as they open up a two-game mini set against the Yanks tonight in the Bronx. Can Toronto bounce back and give us value as a road dog, or will New York cash in as a home favorite?

Find out in our MLB free bet picks and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Yankees on Tuesday, May 10.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

The Blue Jays opened this American League East game with +130 road underdogs and early money moved them to +155 according to the sports betting. The total hit the board at 7 but was quickly bet down to 7.5. This number is carried to the basement from Tuesday afternoon.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Predictions

Picks made on 05/10/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each selection to proceed to the full scan.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Match Info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
First launch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Rogers Sportsnet-1

Blue Jays vs Yankees betting overview

Starting pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.35 ERA): After a tough April, Kikuchi is coming off his best start to the season, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven batters over six innings of work against that same Yankees team on May 4.

Luis Severino (2-0, 3.75 ERA): Severino has looked like himself after missing the majority of the past three seasons through injury. The right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his first five starts of the season.

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Weather

Be sure to monitor game conditions with our MLB weather information.

Key injuries

Blue jays: Danny Jansen C (Out).
Yankees: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend you need to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last four games against a right-handed starter and 4-1 in the Yankees’ last five games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for the Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks and Predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this match. Our best bet is our preferred choice in all markets.

Moneyline Analysis

The Blue Jays enter this two-game mini set hoping to bounce back from a week that saw them go just 2-5 on aggregate.

The Blue Jays’ two biggest problems often surfaced during this streak. The Jays still rank dead last in MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position at just .187, while the bullpen has faltered a little, now ranking 22nd in ERA and 23rd in opponent’s batting average.

Meanwhile, the Yankees come into this game sitting atop the AL East standings at 20-8, but their bats have been silent in the last four games, scoring six runs in that span.

For the opener of this series, we will see Yusei Kikuchi take on Luis Severino. Kikuchi was off to a dreadful start to his 2022 campaign before a somewhat stunning start where he topped a hot Yankees lineup last time out.

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It was mind-blowing because Kikuchi had struggled with his control on his first four starts, throwing at a 5.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over that span, facing a Yankees team that ranks fifth in OPS. , first in the circuits and generally crushed left-handers.

As noted, the Yankees’ bats have been gone since then, hitting a miniscule .155 over the past four games, despite facing Kikuchi and an inferior Texas Rangers pitching staff.

Fortunately for the Yankees, their pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball, including Severino. The right-hander creates a lot of soft contact and throws to an expected ERA of 2.88. He held the Blue Jays scoreless on two hits in five innings on April 14.

That said, he’s allowed 17 hits and struck out just 12 in his last 16 innings on the job and now faces a Jays roster that generally does well against right-handers and just craves a breakout.

It’s a tough game to handicap, but we’ll lean towards the Blue Jays for several reasons. These rivals are continually playing close games, the Yankees bats are a bit struggling and the price we are getting.

Prediction: Blue Jays Moneyline (+155 at Caesars)

Covers MLB betting analysis

Over/under analysis

The total for this game is intriguing. If not for a late-inning collapse by the Blue Jays midway through their last series, those teams should likely be 6-1 against the underdogs in their first seven meetings. When you consider the Yankees’ throwing combined with their little hitting slump and the Jays’ inability to cash in on runners, it’s no wonder we have such a low total. But, I’m with the early money here and going to 7.5 still doesn’t seem like enough.

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For starters, with Kikuchi off to a great start against that same Yankees roster, we’re going to see more of him to think he’s headed in the right direction. The southpaw still throws a 5.25 xERA and has been consistently hit hard this season. Despite the Yanks’ fall, this team still ranks third in OPS and first in home runs against lefties this season.

On the other hand, anyone who watches the Blue Jays regularly knows that the offense has been downright disappointing at this point in the season. But that team is still tied for ninth in batting average and has hit the second-most homers with right-handers faced. Also, with the return of Teoscar Hernandez, the depth of this lineup improves a lot.

So expect a slight regression to the average for Kikuchi and the formation of the Blue Jays. Which means a hard look at the Over.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Unless your name is Gerrit Cole, or I guess Nestor Cortes now, the job of a New York Yankees starter is pretty simple. Throw five solid innings, then let Aaron Boone get the ball back to one of baseball’s best bullpen.

This is essentially Severino’s role. Despite his excellent numbers, he has pitched more than five innings only once in his five starts this year. And while he didn’t get a huge amount of strikeouts, the right-hander quickly increased his pitch count in most starts, averaging nearly 17 pitches per inning.

So, there are two reasons to love this bet. Severino might just pitch and not go past five innings, especially considering you rarely enjoy giving a team like the Blue Jays a third look at your business. Or, the Jays start hitting like we know they can and it lasts five or less through damage dealt.

To take: Luis Severino Under 15.5 outs saved (-120)

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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