Capitals vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions: Toronto stand tall in Matthews’ big night

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NHL odds, picks and predictions for the Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on April 14. Free NHL betting picks for Moneyline and Over/Under.

Content of the article

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off another loss to a non-playoff team in Tuesday’s 5-2 loss to Buffalo and the Buds will look to bounce back tonight against the Washington Capitals at Scotiabank Arean as home favorites of -160.

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Content of the article

Is Jack Campbell 100% back and ready to take the load all the way through the stretch? Can the Caps continue their hot spell and possibly move up the Eastern Conference standings and avoid a date with the Panthers?

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

Predictions made on 04/14/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Match info Capitals vs Maple Leafs

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
puck toss: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-DC, TSN4

Capitals vs Maple Leafs betting overview

Key injuries

Uppercase letters : Dmitry Orlov D ​​(Doubtful), Carl Hagelin F (Out).
Maple leaves: Jack Campbell G (Probable), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Doubtful), Wayne Simmonds F (Doubtful), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).

Check out our latest NHL injury reports.

Summary of confrontations between the Capitals and the Maple Leafs since 2017-2018

Uppercase letters : 6-4 SU, 30 goals for.
Maple leaves: 4-6 SU, 30 goals for.

Betting trend you need to know

Over bets are 7-0-1 in the Capitals’ last eight games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for the Capitals vs. Maple Leafs.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this match. Our best bet is our preferred choice in all markets.

Moneyline Analysis

We all know the Leafs struggle to beat bad teams, but Sheldon Keefe’s group had no problem overcoming playoff teams and winning as shorter favorites. Toronto is 10-3 as -160 or under favorites and has lost only once in regulation to a playoff team in its last 10 games.

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Content of the article

They have already beaten the Capitals in February with a 5-3 final in Washington. Toronto lost a 3-1 first-period lead in that game, but Rasmus Sandin’s goal late in the third was the winner. That game featured Petr Mrazek in the net for the Buds as they chased down Caps starter Ilya Samsonov after 20 minutes.

Both teams come into tonight’s game with similar records over the past 30 days, but the Capitals come into play tonight on a four-game winning streak that includes wins over the Bruins, Lightning and Penguins. Washington is coming off its biggest one-sided win of the season after a 9-2 thrashing of the Flyers on Tuesday, but Toronto could enter tonight as the hungriest team after the loss to Buffalo.

Prior to the Buffalo loss, the Leafs were playing their best hockey of 2022. They knocked out top teams in the East and were 8-0-1 in Tuesday’s game. In this game, Keefe was unhappy with the front line being ruled out and missing a few shifts late in the third.

That could possibly motivate Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, which is scary for the Caps because the duo consists of the league’s leading scorer and a guy who’s led the league in points since Jan. 1.

The Leafs should also get a boost in goal with Jack Campbell likely to start tonight. He missed the last game for some minor maintenance issues, but he’s apparently good to go. Since coming back from injury, he’s 3-1 with that one loss to the Panthers — a game he didn’t even start.

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Content of the article

Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek have played 21 games since Jan. 1, but neither goalie has been impressive lately as both goalies have recorded save percentages below 0.900 in all 30 last days. The Leafs chased Samsonov in the first game after a three-goal first period.

With the Leafs closing as -135 road favorites last game and Jack Campbell getting the nod tonight instead of Mrazek who started the last game, that -165 price tag still seems short. We like the Leafs here in a big rebound area and the short price is just icing on the cake.

Prediction: Maple Leafs Moneyline (-160 at bet365)

Covers NHL betting analysis

Over/under analysis

The last encounter saw eight goals in total and we’d be surprised if we didn’t see a two-way scoreline again tonight.

The Capitals are scoring 3.77 goals per game over the past 30 days, but are also getting weak goaltenders, as their 3.31 GAA is a league last-12 mark over that span. The power play scores over 25%, which has helped the Caps go 7-1-1 over the past nine games.

Washington has a ton of scoring depth as Tom Wilson, TJ Oshie and Alex Ovechkin all play on different lines. He’s backed by arguably the worst goalie of the eight playoff teams in the East and has the second-best record ever in hockey at 42-28.

The Leafs have also been a profitable team for the Over this with a 41-28 record this season. Toronto is averaging 7.50 total goals per game over the past 30 days, which is the highest in the league. The power play hasn’t scored in two games, but keeping the league’s best PP off the board isn’t an easy thing to do and it’s only a matter of time before it does it again to buzz.

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Content of the article

The Buds’ top dogs will also be motivated after a lackluster performance against Buffalo that saw them hit the bench and miss an important PP time. Matthews and Marner should be back to their elite ways tonight and facing off against the questionable Capitals goaltender will likely help.

With two of the best Over teams in the league facing off tonight, we’re looking at that total in one direction and that’s with Over. This total is starting to move and could eventually reach 7.0. We’re going there now because it wouldn’t be a game at that number.

Prediction: More than 6.5 (-115 at PointsBet)

Best bet

Matthews was dropped from the scoresheet in the final game for the first time in 17 straight games. The league’s top scorer is likely to be on a mission tonight after receiving some love from his manager on Tuesday.

Since January 1, Matthews has scored 39 goals in 41 games. He has scored in 14 of his last 17 games and currently has 58 goals and will be looking for more than one tonight in front of the home crowd.

The power play should also find its stride after going 0-for-10 the past two games, but Matthews does most of his damage at 5-5, which separates him from many other scorers.

The price is as low as -140, but Bet365 is showing a target of -105 at all times for Matthews, which is a steal. Sign us up.

To take: Matthews goals anytime (-105)


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