MLB Power Rankings: The Blue Jays are on the rise


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Welcome to the third edition of the MLB Power Rankings. As we all await the next news from Juan Soto’s team to potentially change the focus of the league, we were greeted with a wacky return from the All-Star break.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost two straight to the Washington Nationals — yes, those Washington Nationals — and the New York Yankees have lost two of their last three. And hey, did I mention the Oakland Athletics are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now? They have won seven of their last 10 games.

Speaking of the Yankees and Dodgers, one of the most notable elements of this week’s Power Rankings might go unnoticed. The gap between these two teams is as close as it has been, with their radius separated by just 0.010 percentage points. A big reason for this is that the Dodgers’ pitching staff are starting to separate themselves slightly from the rest of the league. The reason for this? They induce tons of soft touches. Collectively, they have the lowest hit rate in the league.

We’ll talk more about the Blue Jays in a moment, but wow, what a reversal. Two weeks ago it looked like a team heading straight for a disappointing season, and now they seem to be one of the best teams in the league. Bettors have taken notice and Toronto now has the sixth best odds to win the World Series, which is directly where they sit in our power rankings.

You can find Toronto to win it all at +1,800 on FanDuel. However, I still look for a price around +2,100 (4.5% implied probability) to see it as a value bet.

Let’s take a look at this week’s MLB Power rankings below:

MLB Power Rankings: Week of July 27

Rank Team (radius) Ranking last week Registration World Series Odds
1 New York Yankees (.686) 1 66-32 +380
2 Los Angeles Dodgers (.676) 2 64-32 +360
3 Houston Astros (.634) 3 64-34 +500
4 New York Mets (.604) 4 60-37 +750
5 Atlanta Braves (.602) 5 59-41 +850
6 Toronto Blue Jays (.575) 9 54-43 +1,200
seven Philadelphia Phillies (.555) 6 51-47 +4,000
8 Minnesota Twins (.544) seven 52-45 +5,000
9 San Diego Padres (.542) ten 55-45 +2,200
ten Seattle Mariners (.535) 11 53-45 +5,000
11 Milwaukee Brewers (.534) 14 54-44 +2,000
12 St. Louis Cardinals (.530) 13 51-47 +4,500
13 Tampa Bay Rays (.521) 12 52-45 +4,000
14 Baltimore Orioles (.520) 20 49-48 +5,000
15 Chicago White Sox (.518) 17 49-48 +3,000
16 San Francisco Giants (.515) 8 48-49 +6,000
17 Boston Red Sox (.512) 15 49-49 +5,500
18 Cleveland Guardians (.508) 16 49-47 +10,000
19 Miami Marlins (.505) 19 46-51 +40,000
20 Arizona Diamonds (.504) 23 44-53 +200,000
21 Texas Rangers (.491) 21 43-53 +100,000
22 Los Angeles Angels (.469) 18 41-56 +50,000
23 Colorado Rockies (.451) 22 44-54 +200,000
24 Chicago Cubs (.447) 24 40-57 +200,000
25 Cincinnati Reds (.414) 25 37-59 +200,000
26 Kansas City Royals (.412) 26 39-58 +200,000
27 Washington Nationals (.400) 29 34-65 +200,000
28 Detroit Tigers (.395) 28 40-59 +100,000
29 Oakland Athletics (.385) 30 37-63 +200,000
30 Pittsburgh Pirates (.383) 27 40-58 +200,000

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World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.

The tallest risers

Toronto Blue Jays (6)

The Blue Jays (+3) didn’t make the biggest jump in our rankings, but they did the most remarkable. Sure, you’ve heard of the franchise-record 28 runs they scored against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend, but their offensive display didn’t stop there.

The Jays are averaging just over seven runs per game in their last three outings, which is second in baseball, and have a .268 batting average. For my money, it’s the best offense in baseball right now. They become serious contenders if they can find bullpen arms before the trade deadline.

Blue Jays have a +51 point differential in 9 games under John Schneider That’s the 2nd best 9-game point differential in franchise history#NextLevel — Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats ) July 27, 2022

Toronto made that progress despite ranking 20th as a pitching staff in our Power Rankings. They are the only Top 10 team in the standings with personnel ranked outside of the Top 15. While we don’t see the value of a World Series bet just yet, it’s certainly getting closer.

Baltimore Orioles (14)

I don’t know what the Baltimore Orioles (+6) have to do to be considered more of a playoff threat, but it’s hard not to believe it. My projections give them an 18% chance of making the playoffs. This implies considerable value over the current number available on DraftKings at +1,800.

The Baltimore #Orioles, who have lost 333 games over the past three full seasons, have a winning record (49-48). They are just three games away from a wildcard spot, tied with the #RedSox and #Guardians for last place. — Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 27, 2022

My projections say the price should be around +450! The O’s will be looking to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, and if they can get it, they’ll likely be less than a game away from the last Wild Card spot in the American League.

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I’m totally ready to be the conductor of the Orioles. This team is seriously underrated.

The biggest fallers

San Francisco Giants (16)

The curious case of the San Francisco Giants (-8) continues to mystify my Power Rankings modeling. I wrote last week that I personally disagree with the height of my power rating that the Giants look like. This week they suffered the biggest drop in the standings of any team to date.

Carlos Rodón furiously threw a bat that hit Thairo Estrada in the leg ???? — SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) July 27, 2022

However, their win expectancy has backed them up and says they are about seven games above .500 despite a few games below. What this suggests is that they were unlucky. However, bad luck doesn’t matter when you lose to the Arizona Diamondbacks, which the Giants have done on back-to-back nights.

Los Angeles Angels (22)

The Halos (-3) fell again in this week’s Power Rankings. By far the league’s biggest disappointment of the season, I don’t know what else to say about them.

The Los Angeles Angels have now won 15 TOTAL games since May 24. They are 6-3 in games of Shohei Ohtani is their SP and 9-36 in games of others. Three of those wins have come against the Kansas City Royals. All three wins were shutouts. — Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) July 27, 2022

On any night, selecting Over on the opposing pitcher’s strikeout prop is an automatic bet, as the Angels easily have the highest flair rate in baseball. Currently, they lead the league in strikeouts per game with 9.7 and have lost seven of the last 10 games.

Power Rankings Methodology

Chris Hatfield’s MLB power rankings are largely based on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.

This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they line up in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds a secret sauce to developing a team’s “radius,” which includes a formula consisting of a team’s expected collective ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other elements.

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This process not only tries to show you how a formula sees the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series compared to bettors’ expectations.

Through various simulations, he finds the implied probability of a team succeeding in the playoffs to help readers like you cash in on tickets. Equally important, Chris’s MLB power rankings aren’t a subjective list — and don’t reflect the odds between any two teams in any given game.

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