Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Pens Still Flightless


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Fresh off a seven-game losing streak, the Pittsburgh Penguins arrive in Toronto on Friday night to face the Maple Leafs, as the two clubs will play the first straight game.

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The Leafs are dealing with problems in net, while the Penguins have serious injury problems on the blue line – but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a high-scoring affair on Friday night.

Find out why in my free NHL picks and predictions for the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Best Odds

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions

The Penguins could lose two starting defensemen tonight, as Jan Rutta and Pierre-Olivier Joseph left their last game against Washington. They are very questionable for tonight, weakening an already weak blue line. The Leafs should be able to take advantage of this with their speed and the benefit of the latest change. The Pens also come into this game in awful form.

Pittsburgh ended its seven-game losing streak this week against the Capitals, but Washington was decimated by injuries and I don’t take much from the victory. On the road this season, the Pens are 2-5-1, scoring just 2.61 goals per game and have the fifth-worst power play. Now they face an opponent who has allowed just 97 shots in their last four games and is minimizing the chances of scoring outside of weak giveaways from a young defense.

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Toronto have struggled to build on early leads so far this season but have also had no problem playing from behind as five of their seven wins have come while trailing. first. The offense has scored over three goals just twice this year, but its recent form, coupled with the Pens’ tough passing and losing ways, has made me stronger on Toronto’s silver line than I I’ve been all season.

Going from -185 to -155 is the trigger point for me and if Erik Kallgren can play as expected, this is a game the Leafs should win 65% to 70% of the time.

If Pittsburgh scores first, there could be some value on a live bet on Toronto, as Pittsburgh goaltender Tristan Jarry has allowed three or more goals in five straight starts and has a save percentage of .874 during this streak with 22 goals against.

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Toronto was a -120 favorite against Vegas this week and there’s a more than 30 point difference between the Pens and the Knights.

my best bet: Toronto Moneyline (-155 at SIA)

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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs moneyline analysis

The Leafs come into Friday’s meeting with the Pens having taken seven of eight possible points, which include elite teams in Vegas, Carolina and Boston. After a disastrous road trip with losses in San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles, the Leafs have pulled themselves together and some team defensive play is a big reason.

Justin Holl found a great home with TJ Brodie, and the addition of Timothy Liljegren balanced the three couples. The Leafs are still making a lot of mistakes (second most giveaways at 5-5), but they’re in the Top 7 at Corsi/Fenwick and are seventh in expected goal differential. Sheldon Keefe is making the most of this team which is currently allowing just 27.4 shots per game (third) and 2.71 goals against (seventh).

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Toronto managed to stifle the opposition. Boston, Carolina and Vegas have averaged just 2.00 goals and 23.6 SOG in Toronto’s last three games. Only once in the Leafs’ last 10 games has his opponent collected more than 33 shots on goal. With no big names between the posts, the Leafs are committed to playing this slower-paced, low-shot style of hockey, and on Friday we should expect the same.

Pittsburgh arrives after ending a seven-game losing streak by beating the injured Capitals 4-1 at DC on Wednesday. It hasn’t been a good start to the 2022-23 season for Pittsburgh, but things could be at their worst on Friday night as the blue line suffered significant losses against Washington.

Pittsburgh already lacked depth and skill on defense, but Rutta and Joseph are questionable to adapt on Friday — especially with a game in Montreal on Saturday. The duo were getting lower pairing minutes, but plugging two holes will either force the Pens to play their top four a ton, or Pittsburgh will have to dilute its other pairings to accommodate the likely call inexperience.

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It was already a Pittsburgh team that ranked in the bottom 7 in shots against per game, goals against and PK. With the latest change, Keefe and the Leafs will be able to get great matchups and exploit Pittsburgh’s blue line injuries.

Some books opened as short as -185, but the Leafs’ credit line moved to a more manageable -155. That offense wasn’t strong enough to take the puck line with three multi-goal wins, but the +105 regulation win is also a solid play considering the Penguins’ form and health.

I expect another low-scoring game on Friday night, even with Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray injured.

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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under Analysis

The Leafs are 4-9-1 O/U this season and their last three Overs have all scored late in the third period. Every Under is live with the Buds, and with the books still giving us a good chance for the Under 6.5, I’m diving into it again on Friday night.

Plenty of indicators point bettors toward overs: Pittsburgh’s defense injuries and the visitors’ poor goalie, while the Leafs’ top two goaltenders are also on the shelf. But due to these compounding issues, the teams are ready to protect their weaknesses and that means a more conservative style of hockey on both sides tonight.

Senior goaltender Kallgren has seen just 50 total shots in his last two starts against two of hockey’s top teams, the Golden Knights and Hurricanes. He conceded four of 20 against Vegas on Tuesday, but if Toronto continues to suppress shots and the defense doesn’t gift wrap the Pens, it could be another low-volume night for the Toronto goaltender.

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The Pens will also be looking to build on the momentum from Wednesday’s win at Scotiabank Arena. Pittsburgh won by playing a close game and allowing just 25 shots, and that included heavy minutes without two of their defensemen. Pittsburgh can certainly control this 5-on-5 attack on Toronto, as scoring at even strength has been a problem all season for the Buds. Auston Matthews has just four 5-5 points in 14 games.

Jarry could get the start for the Pens and his numbers have been terrible to start the year: 3.38 GAA and a 0.902 SV%. But as with Casey DeSmith on Wednesday, this Pittsburgh team will protect its own end first and create an offense out of it.

For a Leafs team that ranks 22nd in goals per game (Pittsburgh is 22nd on the road) and has scored four or more goals just twice in 14 games this year, that’s another Under for me. .

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Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting trend you should know

The Maple Leafs are 21-5 SU in their last 26 against the Metropolitan Division. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Match info Penguins vs Maple Leafs

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ont.
Date: Friday, November 11, 2022
Puck toss: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ATTSN-PIT, Sportsnet

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs key injuries

Betting Guide0330

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