Phillies vs Braves NLDS Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Wheeler shines for Philadelphia

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off in Game 2 of the NLDS on Wednesday afternoon.

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Philadelphia won the NLDS opener yesterday afternoon and is looking to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series. Bettors expect the defending World Series champions to even things up as the MLB betting lines open with Atlanta as -125 home favorites before dropping to -145.

Here are my top Phillies vs Braves MLB free bet picks and predictions for October 12th.

Phillies vs Braves best odds

Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions

Phillies starter Zack Wheeler isn’t as much of an artist at bat as teammate Aaron Nola, but he still does a great job of making hitters feel.

Wheeler’s 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings would have ranked 11th in the majors and his 26.9% strikeout rate would have tied for 12th if he had pitched enough innings to qualify among the league leaders (he only missed nine innings).

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Wheeler had just four strikeouts in last Friday’s win over St. Louis, but he still looked fantastic in this game. He struck out at least seven batters in his three starts against Atlanta this season.

The Braves have a terrific roster when it comes to hitting for power, but those big bats are also hugely lacking. They finished the regular season ranked third among the majors in strikeout rate (24.6%) and stoked 12 times in Game 1. Take the over 5.5 on Wheeler’s punches to more money.

my best bet: Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts (+123 at SugarHouse)

Phillies vs. Braves NLDS Odds

Teams Odds of winning the series
Steelers Philadelphia Phillies -165
Browns Atlanta Braves +135

Phillies vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Phillies held off the Braves 7-6 last night with Atlanta’s comeback attempt in the bottom of the ninth falling just after making three runs.

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It was a huge win for the Phillies who started Ranger Suarez, and now they’ll get aces Wheeler and Nola to Atlanta in back-to-back contests. Those two stallions led the Phillies to an upset victory over the Cardinals in the Wild Card Round and after four days off, Wheeler will be back tonight.

Wheeler spent time late in the season on the IL with a forearm injury, but since returning to the roster he hasn’t skipped a beat. In his last three starts in the regular season, he has allowed just nine hits and one run in 15 innings. In last Friday’s Wild Card victory over the Cardinals, he pitched six shutout innings and allowed just a pair of singles.

The Braves will respond with a very strong starter in Kyle Wright. The 27-year-old led the majors with 21 wins during the regular season – although it should be noted that his expected ERA of 3.89 was significantly higher than his ERA of 3.19.

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Wright also ranks in the bottom 25th percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate and the bottom 40th percentile in average out-speed. Wheeler is much better in those metrics, ranking in the top 10th percentile in average exit speed and the top 25th percentile in hard hit rate.

Both of these teams can smash, with Atlanta leading the Majors in slugging percentage (.443) and barrel rate (10.9%) while ranking second in hard-hit rate (43.5%) on the season. regular.

The Phillies finished sixth in slugging (.422) and hitting rate (41.1%) and ranked seventh in barrel rate (8.5%) despite missing their top hitter in Bryce Harper for more than 60 matches.

Covers MLB betting analysis

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Phillies vs Braves Over/Under Analysis

After combining for 13 runs last night, there’s reason to think Game 2 could be a lower scorer with a pair of cleats on the mound. Especially considering the Phillies had five runs with two strikeouts on the board in yesterday’s game.

Wheeler has thrown a 2.82 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in 26 starts this year and in three starts against the Braves he has had a 2.70 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Wright pitched great against Philadelphia posting a 2.84 ERA with a .123 OBA in three starts.

Atlanta also has a terrific bullpen, with its relievers at a 2.87 ERA with a .205 OBA since the All-Star break. That said, one factor that makes betting on the less difficult is the sorry state of the Phillies’ bullpen.

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In the second half of the season, their relievers had a collective 5.10 ERA with a .268 OBA and they were lucky enough to come out of the ninth inning yesterday afternoon.

Phillies vs. Braves trend you need to know

The under is 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last eight playoff games. Find more MLB betting trends for the Phillies vs. Braves

Phillies vs Braves game information

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
Date: Wednesday, October 12, 2022
First step : 4:37 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Starting pitchers

Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA): Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the majors for the past three years, pitching below 3.00 ERA every season. He’s been hot since leaving IL in late September, throwing at a 0.42 ERA with a 0.61 WHIP through 21 1-3 innings in his last four starts – including a dominating performance against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round last Friday.

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Kyle Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA): In his first full season in the majors, Wright became an ace, leading the majors in wins while pitching to a 1.16 WHIP with a 3.58 FIP on 180 1-3 innings. In his previous start on Oct. 1, he scattered seven hits and two runs over five innings against the Mets in a tense matchup with heavy playoff implications. Despite his young age, Wright has made four playoff appearances over the past two seasons.

Phillies vs Braves latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather Phillies vs Braves

Be sure to monitor game conditions with our MLB weather information.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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