Picks and predictions for Stampeders vs Western Lions semifinal: Calgary’s balanced offense is a problem


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The Calgary Stampeders and the BC Lions will face off in what should be a formidable showdown in the West Division semifinals on Sunday night. They were two of the top three teams in the CFL in the regular season, and bettors expect close competition at BC Place this weekend.

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The CFL betting lines opened with the Leos as 2.5-point home favorites before dropping to -1.5. Here are my top free CFL picks and predictions for the Stampeders vs. Lions on Nov. 6.

Best Stampeders vs. Lions Odds

Stampeders vs Lions picks and predictions

The Stampeders have a high-octane offense that finished the season with a CFL-best 31.2 points per game. They are extremely well balanced on this side of the ball with a strong offensive line, the league’s best rusher in Ka’Deem Carey and quarterback Jake Maier distributing the ball.

Maier has been without two of his best receivers in Malik Henry and Kamar Jorden for over a month, but both stallions should be back in the lineup this week.

Although the Lions’ defense was statistically the best in the league for the first half of the season, it has been exposed in the past two months. This was especially the case when they faced explosive offenses like the Stampeders and Blue Bombers.

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The Leos gave up 40 points to the Stamps in Week 10 and gave up 29 points to them in Week 15. While they held Calgary to 25 points in Week 16, the Stamps still racked up 438 yards. attack in this contest.

With O/U on Calgary’s team total pegged at 24.5 – a number the Stamps have eclipsed in nine straight games – I hammered the Over.

my best bet: Stampeders Team Total Over 24.5 (-106 to FanDuel)

Stampeders vs Lions spread analysis

The Stampeders finished the regular season with a 12-6 record, and their six losses were close until the last minute of the game (including three razor-thin losses to the Gray Cup favorites Blue-Bombers).

The Stamps led the league with 135.3 rushing yards per game and 6.4 yards rushing (one more rushing yard than second-place Edmonton). They also had an effective passing game with Jake Maier taking over as starting QB midway through the season, as he completed 74.7% of his passes while ranking third in the league in QB rankings.

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Calgary was also solid on defense, limiting opponents to a league-low 5.9 yards per game, and led the CFL with a plus-21 turnover ratio.

The Lions had a great first half of the season, going 8-1 (7-2 ATS) and edging the Stampeders in overtime in Week 10. Unfortunately, quarterback Nathan Rourke (who led the CFL in all passing categories) at the time) suffered a serious foot injury in Week 11.

Without their QB superstar, the Lions regressed on both sides of the ball and went 4-5 SU and ATS to close out their season. Rourke returned to the lineup for a brief appearance last week and looked pretty sharp, completing seven of 11 throws for 68 yards against the Bombers.

While he was a little behind on deep and boundary throws, those are fixable with another week of practice under his belt, and the Lions are definitely a better team with him under center, even if it’s not quite 100%.

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Stampeders vs. Lions Over/Under Analysis

Although both teams also have strong stopping units (especially when it comes to pass defense), they were able to score points against each other. While they played an underscored game against each other in Week 16, it was with Vernon Adams Jr. struggling under center, and the Stamps were still able to move the ball.

The previous week, the Lions had a 31-29 overtime win over the Stamps. In Week 10 (with Rourke at QB for BC), we saw a whopping 81 points hit the scoreboard.

The Calgary team over-over was my best bet, and the only reason I’m not backing the over-50 over the game is that I’m not completely convinced that Rourke is back at full Powerful.

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My biggest concern is Rourke’s mobility, as he looked far less elusive than usual against Winnipeg’s pass rush last week on a play where he dropped the ball.

The Stampeders led the league with 56 sacks, and they could make life difficult for Rourke, especially if his blind guard Joel Figueroa is unable to play after being restricted to practice this week.

Stampeders vs. Lions trend you need to know

Calgary is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 road games and 16-5-1 ATS in its previous 22 trips to British Columbia. Find more CFL betting trends for the Stampeders vs. Lions.

Stampeders vs. Lions game information

Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
To start up: 4:30 p.m. ET

Stampeders vs. Lions key injuries

Stampeders: Folarin Orimolade DE (Doubtful), Tre Roberson CB (Doubtful), Malik Henry WR (Likely), Elie Bouka S (Likely), Brad Muhammed HB (Likely), Derek Dennis LT (Out).
The Lions: Lucky Whitehead WR (doubtful), Jevon Cottoy WR (doubtful), Bryan Burnham WR (likely), Joel Figueroa LT (doubtful), TJ Lee HB (likely).
Check out our latest CFL injury reports.

Weather Stampeders vs. Lions

Betting Guide0330

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

The information in the above article is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended for those under the age of 19. Use of this information to violate any law is prohibited. Visit the Responsible Gambling Council’s Safer Play to keep gambling safe and fun.

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